As the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continues to evolve, the monthly data from May 2025 compared to May 2024 presents a compelling narrative of market correction, buyer behavior, and shifting affordability. In this analysis, we explore the key metrics, regional breakdowns, economic indicators, and notable trends shaping the housing market today.
1. Overall Market Summary
Metric | May 2024 | May 2025 | % Change |
Home Sales | 7,013 | 6,244 | -11.0% |
New Listings | 18,612 | 21,819 | +17.2% |
Average Price | $1,165,691 | $1,120,879 | -3.8% |
Active Listings | 21,760 | 30,964 | +42.3% |
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio (SNLR) | 37.7% | 28.6% | Lower Demand |
The data reveals a market cooling trend. Home sales declined by 11%, while active listings soared by over 40%. Increased inventory and lower sales reflect greater buyer caution amid economic uncertainties.
2. Pricing Trends by Home Type
Home Type | Avg. Price May 2024 | Avg. Price May 2025 | % Change |
Detached | $1,506,675 | $1,425,264 | -5.4% |
Semi-Detached | $1,173,819 | $1,098,447 | -6.4% |
Townhouse | $1,044,874 | $934,740 | -10.5% |
Condo Apartment | $767,064 | $709,905 | -7.4% |
All major housing types saw a year-over-year decline in average prices, with townhouses experiencing the steepest drop. This suggests that more affordable segments are being repriced aggressively to attract buyers.
3. Sales Volume by Home Type
Home Type | Sales May 2024 | Sales May 2025 | % Change |
Detached | 3,238 | 2,998 | -7.4% |
Semi-Detached | 616 | 617 | +0.2% |
Townhouse | 851 | 781 | -8.2% |
Condo Apartment | 1,942 | 1,482 | -23.7% |
Interestingly, semi-detached homes remained stable in volume, possibly due to their mid-tier affordability. Condo sales plunged by nearly 24%, signaling investor hesitation or reduced demand in vertical living.
4. Regional Insights
City of Toronto
- Sales: Down from 2,701 to 2,315
- Average Price: $1,193,202 (2024) vs. $1,155,616 (2025)
- Inventory: Up significantly; Months of Inventory rose from 3.2 to 4.6
York Region
- Sales-to-New Listings Ratio: Dropped from 43.9% to 35.7%
- Days on Market (LDOM): Increased by 4 days, signaling slower turnover
Durham Region
- Sales: Declined to 850 in 2025 from 907 in 2024
- Price Trend: Flat to mildly negative, showing some resilience
5. Key Economic Indicators
Indicator | May 2024 | May 2025 |
Unemployment Rate | 5.0% | 4.3% |
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate | 5.0% | 5.0% |
Inflation Rate (YoY CPI) | 7.84% | 6.09% |
While rates remained high, the downward trend in inflation and slight recovery in employment are positive signals. However, consumer sentiment remains cautious.
6. Market Interpretation and Outlook
The year-over-year comparisons paint a picture of a cautious but improving market from an affordability standpoint. With prices declining across all property types and inventory rising, buyers are gaining negotiation power. However, a notable drop in demand suggests buyers are either waiting for further price declines or for rate cuts.
TRREB’s commentary highlights that the real bottleneck is economic confidence. Many households remain concerned about trade stability and long-term affordability. Although borrowing costs are lower than peak 2024 levels, they’re still elevated enough to restrict activity.
7. What Buyers and Sellers Should Know
For Buyers:
- Inventory is up and prices are down—a rare combination favoring buyers.
- It’s a good time to explore neighborhoods where price drops have been steeper (e.g., townhomes and condos).
For Sellers:
- Be prepared for longer time on market.
- Pricing strategy is critical; overpricing will lead to stagnation.
Investors:
- Rental markets remain tight, but resale condo markets are under pressure.
- Look to low-rise multifamily for better stability and rental yield.
8. Conclusion
May 2025 represents a market in transition. Compared to May 2024, we see that affordability has improved, but confidence remains shaky. Buyers are selective, and sellers are adjusting. Until interest rates decline or economic optimism returns, the GTA housing market is likely to remain stable, but subdued. For now, it’s a chess game, not a race.
Source: https://trreb.ca/market-data/market-watch/
